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There are a number of choices during the game have an impact on the events over the course of the game and which can impact the way the meeting and the ending unfold. Nothing in Chapter I, apart from choosing Roche/Iorveth at the end, will directly affect the ending.
Roche's Path
Prince Stennis will always die trying to leave the battlefield.
If Geralt decided to kill King Henselt then his body will be on display in Dethmold's chambers. Surprisingly little will be mentioned of the Kaedweni succession, though Henselt had no immediate heir which likely complicates the process.
If Geralt let him live, Henselt gains control of not only Upper Aedirn, but likely the whole of Aedirn because there is no one left to ascend to the Aedirninan throne given prince Stennis' death in the ghostly mist.
If Geralt goes with Vernon Roche to save King Foltest's daughter, Anaïs, and convinces Roche to give Anaïs to Temeria: Roche will say that she decided to pick up a sword instead of a doll, John Natalis will teach her warfare, and he believes she will be a great leader.
If Geralt goes with Roche to save King Foltest's daughter, and convinces Roche to give the daughter to Radovid: Temeria becomes a protectorate of Redania, Anaïs is to be raised in Redania until she is of age to marry. Radovid or one of his barons will likely be her future husband to unite the two kingdoms under Radovid's banner. It is suggested that Temeria could possibly regain its independence with Anaïs as queen once she comes of age, but Radovid would likely never allow it.
After defeating the dragon Geralt can choose to slay it or let it live. He cannot release it from Philippa's control.
In the Epilogue, if Geralt went to save Triss, then later on the way to see Letho, he sees Roche has saved Anaïs by himself and is defending her from a bunch of soldiers. The witcher can save him, but the Commander is officially labeled an outlaw and Temeria disintegrates into baronies if Henselt was killed — with the implication that they are far more vulnerable to being annexed by Redania, Kaedwen, and/or Nilfgaard - or is divided between Kaedwen and Redania if Henselt is alive. Iorveth is also mentioned as having a huge price on his head and is likely enjoying the attention of being "public enemy #1."
Iorveth's Path
If Geralt allows Prince Stennis to be killed, Aedirn will collapse because there is no one to rule it.
If Geralt spares Prince Stennis, it will be revealed that he did order Saskia's poisoning. After he becomes king he will try to oppose Saskia with the support of other kings.
If Geralt allows Prince Stennis to be killed and Saskia dies then the Pontar Valley will have no clear ruler.
King Henselt will always survive no matter the choices made.
If Geralt decides to rescue Philippa Eilhart from the dungeon, then he will automatically release the dragon from her control. He will not be given the option to kill the dragon. It should be noted that this opens up additional dialogue, as Saskia returns to her human form.
If Geralt decides to save Triss instead, then he will be given an option of killing the dragon or leaving it. Iorveth will be unconscious and surrounded by soldiers, having gone to rescue Philippa and then badly hurt by her. Geralt will be given the option to walk away and leave Iorveth to the troops, or attack them and tell Triss to save him. She will say that he is badly hurt and will take months to heal him. Philippa's dagger will be found nearby, though the dragon is long gone at that point.
If Geralt kills Aryan La Valette he will have to save Mary Louisa La Valette during the quest "The Dungeons of the La Valettes" with the help of Shilard Fitz-Oesterlen. If Geralt convinces Aryan to surrender he will have to save Aryan during "The Dungeons of the La Valettes" quest and there isn't a deal with Nilfgaard. The consequences of this choice are unknown. Also neither Aryan nor Mary Louisa help Geralt when he's trying to save Anaïs in the quest Of His Blood and Bone.
If Geralt saves Síle de Tansarville, Letho will mention she will be hunted by Royal witch-hunters and will likely die a slow death by them. If he leaves her to die, then Letho will say the witcher showed her mercy.
On either path, if Geralt saves Triss instead, the new Council of Sorcerers will still be created, since Triss is the one to point out that Síle was the traitor and Nilfgaard is not present to incite hostilities.
On either path, if Geralt does not save Triss, she is saved by Letho. The major disruption during the talks will be Shilard Fitz-Oesterlen revealing both Síle as the traitor and the Lodge of Sorceresses as a conspiratorial body. The Council/Conclave of Sorcerers will not be created, and the summit degenerates into a literal witch hunt by the various faction armies after the dragon attack.
After fighting the dragon (a Quick Time Event), if Geralt decides to kill the dragon, then he will lament that she was enslaved by Lodge and reduced to a tool to do their bidding. If he does not kill the dragon, then he will reason later explaining that dragons are exceedingly rare and the only one who deserved death was Philippa.
No matter what path or choices taken, Geralt will ultimately have to choose to either kill Letho or let him walk away; this will be the last action in the game and has no other plot significance aside from possibly enabling an appearance by Letho in The Witcher 3.
Ending Sequence
If you go with Roche/Iorveth in Chapter III, then you will walk out with Roche/Iorveth and Triss.
If you opted to rescue Triss in Chapter III, you will walk out with Triss only.
Ending Plot Summary
No matter what, Nilfgaard will be on the march north to invade the Northern Kingdoms. Letho was employed by Nilfgaard to kill the kings in the Northern Kingdoms to soften them up and cause chaos and disunity for the coming invasion. Letho used the Lodge of Sorceresses as a cover to kill the kings because they initially had the same objective, albeit on a far smaller scale.
The Lodge of Sorceresses initially only wanted to kill Demavend because he was shown to be a weak but resistant king, and they figured they could use the unrest to raise up Saskia as head of a new egalitarian nation in the rich Pontar Valley — one that the sorceresses would have ultimate influence over. But after Demavend's death, Letho used the Sorceresses' resources to contact the Scoia'tael — ostensibly to hide from the Aedirnian manhunt — and convinced them to help him kill Kings Foltest and Henselt. After the death of Foltest, Letho felt Iorveth was too willful and perceptive to be deceived and he tried to usurp his control over the Squirrels, which is when Geralt intervened. Síle was sent to Flotsam after Foltest's death to eliminate Letho and his crew in order to stop both the spread of regicide-inspired chaos and to eliminate any evidence that the Lodge had initially worked with them.
Geralt's memory is mostly restored by the end. He learns of Yennefer of Vengerberg's fate and that she is alive somewhere in Nilfgaard; her situation and the condition of her memory remain unknown.
Default events
The following events will occur unless Geralt specifically prevents them.
Loredo will die unless Geralt sides with Iorveth and chooses to save the elven women instead of killing Loeredo. If Loredo lives, Flotsam will be sold to Kaedwen.
Stennis will die, and Aedirn collapse or be conquered unless Geralt sides with Iorveth and prevents the mob from killing Stennis.
Henselt will live unless Geralt sides with Roche and lets Roche kill him.
Temeria will cease to be an independent kingdom; and will be partitioned between Redania and Kaedwen, become a Redanian protectorate, or be split into baronies unless Geralt sides with Roche and gives Anaïs to Constable Natalis.
Dethmold will die unless you side with Roche and choose to save Triss instead of Anaïs.
Saskia will remain under Philippa's spell unless Geralt kills her, or sides with Iorveth and frees her.
Sixteen endings
The prize for being the first person to send CDProjekt all 16 endings was won by Guipit. According to his post the 16 endings are as follows.
| Prologue | Chapter I | Chapter II | Chapter III |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aryan Alive | Choose Roche | Henselt Alive | Save Anaïs |
| Save Triss | |||
| Henselt Dead | Save Anaïs | ||
| Save Triss | |||
| Choose Iorveth | Stennis Alive | Save Saskia | |
| Save Triss | |||
| Stennis Dead | Save Saskia | ||
| Save Triss | |||
| Aryan Dead | Choose Roche | Henselt Alive | Save Anaïs |
| Save Triss | |||
| Henselt Dead | Save Anaïs | ||
| Save Triss | |||
| Choose Iorveth | Stennis Alive | Save Saskia | |
| Save Triss | |||
| Stennis Dead | Save Saskia | ||
| Save Triss |
The effect these endings have on any potential sequels is currently unknown.
PC Version
In the PC version (and likely in The Enhanced Edition), it no longer changes the endings if Aryan is alive or dead and if Stennis is alive or dead, hence halfing the possible endings to eight. The Official Prima eGuide depicts it as follows:
 The eight possible endings of the PC version |
|---|
Notable "bad" endings
Endings in which Geralt dies
Prologue
- During interrogation Geralt can insult Roche (by calling him a whoreson) then attack him in an attempt to escape; Ves shoots the witcher dead with a crossbow.
Chapter I
- If Geralt loses a fistfight with the executioner during By the Gods - Stringing Up Sods quest, the witcher is hanged along with others.
- If Geralt pulls out his sword at the main square of Flotsam, he will be noticed by the guards, if he doesn't pay the "donation" he is shot dead by crossbowmen.
- If the talk with Iorveth goes the wrong way. The elf gives an order to shoot both Zoltan and Geralt. The Scoia'tael archers obey his order.
Chapter II
- If Geralt cannot stay hidden from the guards of King Henselt's tent and gets into a sword fight. He is shot with several arrows from offscreen.
Chapter III
- If Geralt pulls out his sword at the market place or in the military camp, he will be noticed by the guards, if he doesn't pay the fine, or get out of range quickly enough, he is shot dead by crossbowmen.
- During the quest Enter the Dragon. If atop the tower Geralt fails either quicktime event to ride the dragon, he is eaten by the dragon instead, in two different sequences.
- During the quest For a Higher Cause!. If Geralt opts to be captured by soldiers to get to the dungeon to see Phillipa, and doesn't free himself from his binds, then Shilard Fitz-Oesterlen has him executed.